THE NEW NUKES...are we close to breaking ground?

It was great to see the following headline recently, “The New Nukes,” in the Wall Street Journal. The article began with this statement…

“For the first time in decades, popular opinion is on the (nuclear) industry's side. A majority of Americans think nuclear power, which emits virtually no carbon dioxide, is a safe and effective way to battle climate change, according to recent polls. At the same time, legislators are showing renewed interest in nuclear as they hunt for ways to slash greenhouse-gas emissions.”

Having a balanced article of this quality in a first class newspaper shows that public opinion is changing and we here in the U.S. are close to actually having new nuclear plants.

Just yesterday, I had the pleasure of hearing a presentation by Steve Ewald of Georgia Power on one of the four projects selected for DOE loan guarantees -- Vogtle 3 and 4, located in Augusta, Georgia. This project will be an AP1000 pressurized water reactor from Westinghouse with the Shaw Group as the main contractor.

From Ewald’s discussions, it was clear that there are two main reasons Georgia Power selected nuclear:

1) Baseload generation requirements have increased – clean coal is not available in the short term, so the lowest cost option is nuclear.

2) Reduction of carbon emissions – without clean coal, nuclear is the best choice for baseload generation.

Georgia Power is taking advantage of renewable power, for example switching the Mitchell Plant from coal to wood resulting in a 95MW plant. With the limited potential for wind and solar in Georgia, nuclear is the best option for meeting the increase in baseload demand up to 2025.

What we need now is action. The DOE should come out with its final selection of projects for loan guarantees. I recommend proceeding with two projects with competing technologies -- for example, one pressurized water reactor and one boiling water reactor.

Once a project actually breaks ground and an order is placed for an NSSS system, we can really start talking about THE NEW NUKES.

Here’s a link to the article -- http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204409904574350342705855178.html#articleTabs%3Dcomments

Not in my backyard. Hosting renewable energy no picnic for some...

A recent article in the September 4 Wall Street Journal, “Renewable Energy, Meet The New Nimbys,” provides further confirmation that there is no “silver bullet” for our energy problems. When it comes to finding space for renewable projects, we are hearing a lot of people saying, “not in my backyard," also known as “nimbys.”

Complaints from environmentalists include concerns that wind turbines will cause damage to local flora and fauna -- killing sage grouse in Wyoming or the endangered kit fox and antelope-like pronghorn in California.

And, several new wind and solar projects will require transmission lines over previously clear-skied neighborhoods and green spaces.

While we iron out these issues, there is a “silver buckshot” solution. We should choose to hold a variety of energy solutions in our power portfolio -- ranging from renewable to coal, to nuclear. Acceptable solutions will be driven by technology, regional fuel/resource availability and yes, environmental concerns -- even for wind and solar.

In addition to keeping these traditional sources alive, in some states it may make more sense to invest in nuclear and clean coal where transmission line infrastructure already exists. Food for thought, here is the WSJ article. Renewable Energy, Meet the New Nimbys http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125201834987684787.html

Knowledge Management Reduces Risk -- Applying knowledge management software to reduce the risk of new nuclear plant construction and operation

Some of the most frequently heard objections to the development of new nuclear plants are the schedule and cost uncertainties. “We do not know how long it will take or how much it will cost,” it's said.

Recent and past history does not provide much comfort either. In the 1970’s and 1980’s, the average time required to bring a plant on line from order date increased from three to 13 years. More recently the Olkiluoto plant, currently under construction in Finland, has a project completion date -- originally planned for 2009 -- delayed to at least 2012.



New developments, such as modularized design processes and more efficient construction and operating license process by the NRC will certainly help to resolve past problems.

But recently software companies catering to the nuclear plant industry are filling a need, and it’s an exciting new area to talk about. Using knowledge management systems, these companies are capturing lessons learned from past construction and plant operation and developing tools which allow plant owners, architect engineers and regulatory organizations to develop a comprehensive knowledge based management system for design, licensing, construction and operation.

Combined data management and expert system tools allow the transparent flow down of design/licensing requirements to the construction and operation phase of power plant build. Of course this approach can also be applied to existing plant licensing for uprates and modifications.



The International Atomic Energy Association (IAEA) and the Nuclear Energy Institute (NEI) have come out with guidelines and standards for developing knowledge management systems. Here is a report from the IAEA -- http://www-pub.iaea.org/MTCD/publications/PDF/Pub1377_web.pdf

While working with new construction in Europe -- as a subcontractor to the main EPC --I saw my share of changing requirements which required re-design of piping supporting structures during construction. I feel that the industry can reduce the risk in cost and schedule for new nuclear plant build and existing plant modifications by taking advantage of the new suite of tools being created by software companies for developing nuclear plant knowledge base systems.



For more details, check out recent announcements from two software providers, Enterprise Informatics and Wiznucleus -- http://nuclearstreet.com/blogs/nuclear_power_news/archive/2009/08/03/enterprise-informatics-and-excel-services-team-on-nuclear-knowledge-management-1804.aspx 
http://nuclearstreet.com/blogs/nuclear_power_news/archive/2009/07/17/wiznucleus-announces-new-it-platform-for-nuclear-plants-785.aspx

Renaissance of the Nuclear Kind In Italy

This week I was very pleased to see the headline “Enel, EDF to build Nuclear Plants in Italy” in the Aug 4, 2009 edition of the Wall Street Journal. What an exciting renaissance of nuclear power in Italy.

Italy was a pioneer of civil nuclear power, establishing the first scientific body to study nuclear in 1946. In 1952, Italy established an agency to develop and promote nuclear power; this agency was reorganized in 1960 to become CNEN (National Committee for Nuclear Energy).

At the time of the shutdown law in 1987 -- after the Chernobyl accident in Russia -- Italy had four operating nuclear plants: Latina, Garigliano, Trino Vercellese and Caorso and two units under construction at Montalto di Castro. Current plans call for building four new reactors at existing licensed sites.

Of course, I have to provide full disclosure here…l was especially pleased to hear this news because I was one of the young field engineers who started up the Caorso Plan for Enel in northern Italy.

With power costs in Italy currently one-third higher than in most of Europe and a generation mix of more than 60% natural gas, most imported, Italy sees nuclear as a way to address cost, emissions and import dependence simultaneously. More details can be found at the following link to the WSJ article http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124932829249202353.html

Hidden Gem in Sahara Desert – Solar thermal power for Europe…

During my June trip to Europe, my German friends were talking about a project to create a “huge” solar thermal field in the Sahara to generate electricity for Europe. This sounded unbelievable, and my thoughts went to concerns about reliability and safety of the transmission method.

Well, it is a reality and last week the story was see in several print and web media, including the Economist -- http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=13982870

Munich Re, the world’s largest reinsurance company, has invited 20 large companies to join it in developing this massive solar thermal field to satisfy 15% of Europe’s needs by 2050. The project is called Desertec and the companies invited to join this venture include Siemens (Germany’s engineering giant) power suppliers RWE and E.ON, and Deutsche Bank, Germany’s biggest bank.

Why would an insurance company promote this project? Munich Re’s goal is to reduce weather-related losses due to global warming.

Even though Desertec is still a vision, and there are risks having 15% of Europe’s energy supply depend on a foreign country in Africa, I still see several benefits. This is a great place to promote research and development in solar thermal power. The size of the investment ($560 billion) will motivate large and small players to improve the technology and obtain economies of scale thus reducing the cost of production. And, as it has to travel over a distance of over 2000 km, it’s a good application for high-voltage direct current which reduces the transmission losses vs. traditional AC lines.

This project will certainly be a good step for solar thermal generation and will add to the objective of making renewable energy competitive vs. coal and other fossil fuels.

Best use of government energy subsidies in this energy market…

An article in the Wall Street Journal last week confirmed what I have been observing over the past couple months as I speak to people in the energy business.

Government subsidies alone may not be enough to overcome generation options which are not commercially viable.

In addition to the recent American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, production tax credits and investment tax credits for renewable energy have been in place since 1998. These credits have promoted alternative energy generation from wind and solar. Unfortunately this market sector is not showing healthy growth -- wind orders are down 50% from the first quarter last year and solar projects in California are down 60% vs. the first quarter of 2008.

Challenges include financing issues and a lower demand for electricity. But, a larger factor is the competition faced from more cost efficient sources of energy like gas generation.

With gas futures at $3.35 per MBTU alternative sources are becoming less attractive to fund. For example, T. Boone Pickens has just delayed his wind farm project until at least 2013.

Funding exciting new sectors of energy generation should continue, but, we need to make these new technologies commercially viable. Government subsidies need to be used to improve wind farm production costs, reduce photovoltaic costs and show a track record of economic production.

The next generation of these important renewable energy options must be economically solvent without government subsidies.

This brings me back to nuclear generation. The current interest in nuclear power is possible because in the last 20 years that energy sector has shown it can produce electricity safely and at the lowest cost. Yes, challenges exist like long term storage and initial construction costs, but the picture is clear – once these plants are built, not only are they are safe but they are one of the most economically viable energy sources out there.

For more about the challenges that clean energy is facing check out the WSJ article WSJ article and Money/CNN article on Wind Power money cnn.com.

Alstom Power leverages turnkey projects...

My recent visit to Switzerland gave me a chance to meet with representatives from Alstom Power to discuss current topics in power generation.

Switzerland is the one of the key countries for Alstom and the headquarters for its power generation business. Throughout the offices of this multicultural company, one can hear discussions being carried out in several languages including German, English, French and Spanish -- clearly a multinational company.

Alstom recently decided to reorganize the company by merging into a single entity. All activities related to power generation, currently managed by two sectors, Power Systems (plants, equipments and retrofit ) and Power Service (after-sales, from service to renovation and spare parts) is now called Alstom Power.

In addition to providing turbo generators for nuclear plants in France and China, Alstom Power continues to lead in turnkey projects for coal and gas plants.

I was very impressed with the quality of the people I met, and the strategy and direction of Alstom Power and enjoyed our discussions. The company’s focus on clean carbon generation and turnkey projects will yield benefits to Alstom Power in the long term. Turnkey projects managed well can be a competitive advantage over other OEMs.